The statistic says that the winner of this year in Kona will be one of the first 4 of last year
In 16 of the 17 of the last IRONMAN World Championships the winner always finished among the first 4 in the previous edition
According to a study carried out by competitor.com magazine, in 16 of the 17 of the last IronMan World Championships that have been held, the winner of the test always finished in the top 4 in the previous edition. The only exception was the German Normann Stadler after failing to finish the degree in 2005.
In 2013, the winner was Frederik Van Lierde followed by Luke McKenzie, Sebastian Kienle y James Cunnama, so according to your study the winner of this year would be on this list.
2013 Winner: Frederik Van Lierde (BEL) → 2012 result: 3rd
2012 Winner: Pete Jacobs (AUS) → 2011 result: 2nd
2011 Winner: Craig Alexander (AUS) → 2010 result: 4th
2010 Winner: Chris McCormack (AUS) → 2009 result: 4th
2009 Winner: Craig Alexander (AUS) → 2008 result: 1st
2008 Winner: Craig Alexander (AUS) → 2007 result: 2nd
2007 Winner: Chris McCormack (AUS) → 2006 result: 2nd